Bitcoin price forecast - survey

Uncertainty and irrationality control our everyday lives. People often make decisions by sentiments. The Modex Survey measures the uncertainty that people have about economic variables. Uncertainty may be seen as an alternative measure for sentiment. The more uncertain people are about an economic variable, the more careful they will be in making decisions involving that specific variable.

The first part of the Modex survey will consider forecasting of the Bitcoin price in USD. Recently, more and more people follow the price of Bitcoins and use this crypto currency for payments and/or speculating. The sharp increase in the price of Bitcoins over recent years and the sudden downward shocks that we have seen, make people question what the price of Bitcoins will be in the near future. Modex polls will measure how uncertain people are about the price of Bitcoins and how the amount of uncertainty evolves over time. This will provide insight in the beliefs and sentiment of people regarding Bitcoins. Although starting with only the price of Bitcoins, Modex polls will add more economic variables over more time.

How does Modex Survey work?

Every Thursday, 12 p.m., we will send out an email to participants with three questions. Using the responses, Modex polls calculates the uncertainty and sends this back to the participants. Modex polls will publish the uncertainty measures and will provide feedback the dynamics of the measured uncertainty on its website. By doing this, we believe that we can provide people with more information about recent development in economic variables such as Bitcoins.

Do you want to participate?

Modex polls only works with the help of people that are willing to respond to the surveys and thereby share their views. We will never disclose the names of our respondents. When you participate, it does not mean that you have to respond every week as long as you respond sometimes. In return you will be among the first people to receive the Modex polls measures.

WHAT: Bitcoin price forecast
WHEN: every Thursday, by 12 p.m.
FORECAST: 7 days

Our approach is based on recent academic research by one of Modex’ managing partners.

The method that Modex survey uses is presented in two papers written by Ronald Huisman (managing partner of Modex Ukraine), Nico van der Sar, and Remco Zwinkels. In co-operation with a Dutch big bank over a period of three years, they questioned high net-worth individuals about what they believe the level of the main Dutch stock market index will be after two weeks. The novelty in their approach is that they do not only ask about the level, but also what believe the maximum and minimum level that can be achieved. Using these numbers, they demonstrate how they measure the amount of uncertainty among the individuals and to whether this uncertainty comes from average belief and/or disagreement among individuals. The 2017 paper shows that this method exactly follows actual uncertainty (implied volatility) of the Dutch stock market. They proof that measuring uncertainty by surveying individuals yields good uncertainty estimates.


R. Huisman, N.L. Van der Sar and R.C.J. Zwinkels, 2012, A new measurement method of investor overconfidence. Economics Letters, 114 (1): 69-71.

R. Huisman, N.L. van der Sar, and R.C.J. Zwinkels, 2017, Volatility, Beliefs Precision, and Disagreement, Erasmus University working paper.