BITCOIN PRICE FORECAST – SURVEY

Uncertainty and irrationality control our everyday lives. People often
make decisions by sentiments. The Modex Survey measures the uncertainty
that people have about economic variables. Uncertainty may be seen as an
alternative measure for sentiment. The more uncertain people are about
an economic variable, the more careful they will be in making decisions
involving that specific variable.

The first part of the Modex survey will consider forecasting of the
Bitcoin price in USD. Recently, more and more people follow the price of
Bitcoins and use this crypto currency for payments and/or speculating.
The sharp increase in the price of Bitcoins over recent years and the
sudden downward shocks that we have seen, make people question what the
price of Bitcoins will be in the near future. Modex polls will measure
how uncertain people are about the price of Bitcoins and how the amount
of uncertainty evolves over time. This will provide insight in the
beliefs and sentiment of people regarding Bitcoins. Although starting
with only the price of Bitcoins, Modex polls will add more economic
variables over more time.

How does Modex Survey work?

Every Thursday, 12 p.m., we will send out an email to participants with
three questions. Using the responses, Modex polls calculates the
uncertainty and sends this back to the participants. Modex polls will
publish the uncertainty measures and will provide feedback the dynamics
of the measured uncertainty on its website. By doing this, we believe
that we can provide people with more information about recent
development in economic variables such as Bitcoins.

Do you want to participate?

Modex polls only works with the help of people that are willing to
respond to the surveys and thereby share their views. We will never
disclose the names of our respondents. When you participate, it does not
mean that you have to respond every week as long as you respond
sometimes. In return you will be among the first people to receive the Modex polls measures.

WHAT: Bitcoin price forecast

WHEN: every Thursday, by 12 p.m.

QUANTITY OF QUESTIONS : 3

FORECAST: 7 days

SURVEY REPLY DELIVERY : 2 h

Our approach is based on recent academic research by one of Modex’ managing partners.

The method that Modex survey uses is presented in two papers written by
Ronald Huisman (managing partner of Modex Ukraine), Nico van der Sar,
and Remco Zwinkels. In co-operation with a Dutch big bank over a period
of three years, they questioned high net-worth individuals about what
they believe the level of the main Dutch stock market index will be
after two weeks. The novelty in their approach is that they do not only
ask about the level, but also what believe the maximum and minimum level
that can be achieved. Using these numbers, they demonstrate how they
measure the amount of uncertainty among the individuals and to whether
this uncertainty comes from average belief and/or disagreement among
individuals. The 2017 paper shows that this method exactly follows
actual uncertainty (implied volatility) of the Dutch stock market. They
proof that measuring uncertainty by surveying individuals yields good
uncertainty estimates.

Papers

R. Huisman, N.L. Van der Sar and R.C.J. Zwinkels, 2012, A new
measurement method of investor overconfidence. Economics Letters, 114
(1): 69-71.

R. Huisman, N.L. van der Sar, and R.C.J. Zwinkels, 2017, Volatility,
Beliefs Precision, and Disagreement, Erasmus University working paper.

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