How can survey data help commodity traders to manage positions and risks?
We run surveys where we ask commodity traders their expectations about the prices for corn, soybean meal, and wheat. Weekly we ask them what they think the price will be after one week and what the price can be maximally and minimally. What makes this data unique is that it shows expectations and uncertainty among traders, which can be used for trading, price outlooks, and research.
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It is difficult to get a feeling for the dynamics in commodities markets when you are not an insider. Fundamentals such as demand, transport conditions, inventories, and expected harvests influence commodity prices. Those fundamentals are difficult to observe when you do not have the research capacity that commodity traders have.
We believe that having insight in the expectations of fundamental commodity traders will help to better understand the dynamics of commodity markets.
Every week, we ask commodity traders what the prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat will be after one week. The questions that we asked are based on recent academic research. We ask them not only what prices they expect, but what they expect the maximum and minimum prices can be as well. This provides insight in both, expectations and uncertainty.
We survey commodity traders on a weekly basis. As we have done so since October 2019, we now have more than 135 weekly surveys. This history provides clear insight in the information one can obtain from this data.
We offer clients to subscribe to receive our data. We provide them access to our historical data and send them weekly updates. We offer sentiment reports, position signals, information for risk managers, and continues research on applications for portfolio and risk management.
With our data and reports, one can observe trader sentiment in commodity markets. Therefore, we believe that combining our data with historical (price) data improves position taking, risk measures, and commodity market outlooks.
Flexibility assets are for example demand response and power storage systems. We have developed data driven solutions that determine when it is optimal to charge and discharge batteries or to increase or decrease consumption. These flexibility assets are essential to accommodate renewable energy sources in power system. And our service helps you to optimize the flexibility within your power system.
We developed ways to identify what type of flexibility is needed in power markets by predicting the occurrence of extreme power prices. The methodology is novel and has been accepted for publication in an academic journal.
This data gives you information about what other market participants expect and it may help you in judging your positions in commodity markets.
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